Monday, November 15, 2010

So, now that the participants of the MLS Cup Final are set, here is my take on how the game will play out.

Dallas (12-4-14) and Colorado (12-8-10) only finished four points apart in the ultra competitive Western Conference. Both teams are very physical and have a couple of difference makers in David Ferreira and Omar Cummings, respectively. Each team has a strong back line - Dallas only allowed 9.7 shots per game while Colorado allowed 10.2. To put this into perspective, Supporter's Shield winner Los Angeles allowed 9.63 while eighth playoff seed San Jose allowed a whopping 13.6.



The real difference in this game will be the goalkeeping. Over the course of the season, Dallas gave up 0.93 goals per game and Colorado gave up 1.07. However, while this seems like a comparable number, consider that Kevin Hartman was only in goal for Dallas for 20 of their 30 games (only finishing 19 of those games). During this time, Dallas only lost one game and gave up 0.62 goals per game while facing an average of 3.4 shots on goal per game (going 10-1-8). The other ten (eleven, if you count the game he came in for Hartman) games featured Dario Sala, who gave up 1.6 goals per game. During that time, Dallas went 2-3-4, which is hardly a solid record. In fact, I'd say that if Hartman hadn't gotten injured, Dallas may have made a strong push for the Supporter's Shield, but that is a story for another time. Assuming Hartman is fit to go the full game on Sunday, I would give the edge to Dallas.

One final note is that Colorado struggled to score against San Jose. Omar Cummings and Conor Casey were largely ineffective against a tough, yet beatable (by more than one cross turned shot goal) team. Dallas, however, has looked the part against two higher seeds - riding Hartman's saves against Salt Lake and dominating possession against Los Angeles. My prediction is: 2-1, Dallas.



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